Bridging the Governance Gap: Empirical Evidence on the Relationship Between State Capacity and Public Service Performance (2006-2012)

Abstract

The research examines shifts in the State Capacity Index (SCI) and the Public Service Index (PSI) over the period 2006-2012, providing an adequate measure of whether improvements in state capacity on the SCI have led to improvements in public service performance outcomes. Results from graphical and statistical regression analyses show consistent upward trajectories in both indices over the academic years of study, with PSI higher than SCI in all years. Regression results indicate that Model 3 of multivariable regression - consisting of GDP and Population Growth Rate - explained a very high proportion of variance in PSI (R²=0.779, adjusted R²=0.668); neither of those variables reached conventional levels of statistical significance (GDP = 0.074, Population Growth Rate = 0.983). Therefore, the findings suggest a tentative association between economic conditions and public service improvements, although it is not statistically significant. Additionally, state capacity itself provides no statistically significant predictive power for PSI. These results should thus be considered indicative, not definitive, due to problems with the data and models, such as multicollinearity, the composite nature of the indices, and relatively short time series. The data suggest some relationship between economic resources and service outcomes, but does not indicate causality. The study also notes that future research with disaggregated longitudinal and mixed-methods data should yield a better understanding of how governance capacity contributes to the long-term, sustainable achievement of public service.